Rarely do I dip into politics on this - mainly family oriented - blog. But sometimes I just can't help myself. I am not working for (or against) any presidential candidate this cycle and although I don't know how I could with little kids, it is tough to sit on the sidelines at times.
Due to the late hour of the GOP debate last night, I was finally able to watch one, in real time, uninterrupted. So I thought I would share some of my own observations.
Before last night's debate, I would have said that Rick Perry is still holding his own. I was of the opinion that he had been over-hyped and could never live up to the expectations set before he even entered the race. I feared another quick rise and fall such as Fred Thompson in the 2008 cycle (but for different reasons). He and his team have been very organized and disciplined and have done remarkably well so far.
Perry did well for the first 45 minutes or so last night. But then man did he slide. He stumbled over his words multiple times and was almost incoherent during his attempted flip-flop attack on Mitt Romney. It was painful to watch. Perry also has a legitimate immigration problem and he didn't help his cause in the way he defended it last night. Giving preferential treatment to illegals on their college tuition over legal Americans is just wrong. And that does not mean I am lacking in compassion as he implied during the debate. As Rick Santorum correctly pointed out, no one is suggesting illegals shouldn't be able to go to college, but why offer them a taxpayer subsidized education when other legal students have to save and borrow - or some must choose another less expensive school.
Romney has emerged from these debates unscathed and looking like the statesman. It pays to have been around the block before. He is doing well and did a very good job of making it seem like Perry didn't know what he is talking about. Of course, Perry helped him with that perception last night. Romney didn't seem to get hammered as much last night about his healthcare plan in MA but he has also learned how to respond to those criticisms.
Over the past two debates, Bachmann has been fading into the background. Even her retina-burning bold red suit (not good for TV) couldn't draw more attention her way last night. To her credit, she found a way to interject herself on the Cuba discussion. But then she disappeared again for far too long.
Santorum, on the other hand, has had strong debate performances. This may prove troublesome for Bachmann in Iowa. But their performance in Iowa is really inconsequential to the outcome of the primary. Sorry, my Iowa friends. Just my opinion. Neither have had the resources to gain needed traction in other early primary states.
Huntsman, Cain and Newt are all smart guys but they don't have a shot at this point so it's not even worth discussing. The audience members seemed to be big fans of both Cain and Newt though. If Newt ran a campaign as sharp as his debate performances, this would be a very different race.
Ron Paul and Gary Johnson are sideshows. Period. Although, without a doubt, Johnson delivered the funniest line of the night. For those who missed it here is his quote...
“My next-door neighbor’s two dogs have created more shovel-ready jobs than this current administration.”
Overall, I think this is Mitt Romney's to lose. But campaigns are a funny thing and have a sly way of turning on a dime. A few months is an eternity in politics. Anything is possible before next year's primaries. Consider that four months ago Pawlenty was a force to be reckoned with and he's already out. Or that this time four years ago (when I was working for Romney in FL) we were very concerned about Giuliani. Oh yeah - did you forget he ran? See what I mean.
The next big test will be fundraising results at the end of this quarter. Hopefully we'll start to see the field narrow a bit. Nine candidates on a stage is a bit much.
So there you have it - my two cents worth.
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